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Learn how to evaluate meaningful progress indicators in quantum computing research and their implications for achieving practical quantum utility. This 50-minute conference talk examines the challenge of assessing whether current quantum computing advances genuinely lead toward practical applications, addressing a critical question facing government funders and researchers alike. Explore common progress metrics including physical qubit counts and error rates relative to fault-tolerant thresholds, while understanding how their interpretation depends on often-implicit assumptions about hardware scalability and fault-tolerant protocols. Discover why current quantum devices, despite impressive technical advances, do not yet provide practical advantages and how expectations about future quantum utility should be updated with each development. Gain insights into rigorous, independent evaluation methods for quantum technologies that can inform funding decisions and research directions. Understand the distinction between technical achievements and meaningful progress toward quantum utility, particularly in the context of early fault-tolerant quantum computers and the transition from NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) devices to fault-tolerant quantum computing systems.
