Credit Risk Modeling

Overview

This comprehensive course equips learners with the knowledge and practical tools to analyze, evaluate, and apply key credit risk modeling techniques used in modern financial institutions. Through a blend of theoretical frameworks and real-world case studies, learners will explore foundational concepts such as Probability of Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Expected Loss (EL), progressing into structural models like Merton’s approach and market-based credit assessment methods. Participants will also construct and interpret Altman Z-scores to assess bankruptcy risk, and apply credit rating principles to real-world scenarios including airline industry case studies. The course further delves into corporate credit evaluation using internal financial metrics, unhedged foreign currency exposure (UFCE), and working capital analysis, concluding with internal rating systems and lender “ways out” strategies. Designed for aspiring risk analysts, finance professionals, and advanced students, this course combines instructional rigor with practical relevance, enabling learners to build, differentiate, and justify credit decisions with confidence.

Syllabus

Foundations of Credit Risk Modeling

This module introduces the essential principles of credit risk, exploring the fundamental models used to measure and manage credit exposure. It covers key parameters such as probability of default, loss given default, and the development of structural credit models through practical numerical insights.

Scoring Techniques and Industry Applications

This module explores scoring systems like credit ratings and Altman Z-scores, emphasizing their application in evaluating bankruptcy risks. It also analyzes real-world case studies from the airline industry to interpret credit signals and assess financial health using evaluation metrics.

Financial Analysis and Internal Rating Practices

This module dives into advanced credit assessment tools including working capital modeling, unhedged currency exposure, and internal rating systems. It emphasizes spreadsheet-based analysis and alternative repayment options (ways out) to reinforce institutional lending practices.