The Maths of Contagion: Why Things Spread and Why They Stop - With Adam Kucharski

Explore the mathematical models behind the spread of diseases, ideas, and internet phenomena in this 55-minute lecture from The Royal Institution. Delve into the predictability of various outbreaks, from malaria and Zika to SARS and COVID-19, and understand why some never materialize. Discover how similar mathematical principles apply to the propagation of fake news and memes. Learn about the factors influencing disease transmission, including the impact of isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. Gain insights from real-world examples such as the ice bucket challenge, HIV control strategies, and COVID-19 transmission chains in Hong Kong and the UK. Understand the complexities of estimating infection sources and the importance of clear symptoms in successful containment efforts.

Syllabus

Intro
Village with 1,000 people and one person infected
Ice bucket challenge, 2014
Woman returning from Iran is B.C.'s sixth case of new coronavirus
Example: controlling HIV
Example: controlling COVID-19
Example: spreading online content
Estimating Rover time
COVID-19 transmission chains in Hong Kong
Estimated sources of coronavirus introductions into UK
Isolation, contact tracing & quarantine more successful if infection less transmissible and clear symptoms while infectious