The Art of Coercion - Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma

Explore the complexities of international coercion through this 47-minute lecture by Professor Reid Pauly from Brown University, who presents insights from his book "The Art of Coercion" (Cornell University Press, 2025). Discover why strong states surprisingly succeed in coercive diplomacy only one-third of the time, despite their apparent advantages. Learn about the "assurance dilemma" - a critical concept explaining how making threats more credible simultaneously makes assurances less believable, creating a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario for target states. Examine detailed case studies of nuclear counterproliferation efforts involving South Africa, Iraq, Libya, and Iran to understand how this dynamic plays out in real-world scenarios. Understand why targets may choose defiance even when facing credible threats, anticipating punishment regardless of compliance. Gain insights into the dual challenge coercers face: convincing targets they will be punished for non-compliance while simultaneously assuring them they won't be punished if they do comply. Analyze how this framework challenges conventional assumptions that tougher threats alone achieve diplomatic results, offering crucial corrections for foreign policy strategies involving coercive measures across various international challenges.