Future and Nuclear Abolition - Theories of Change for Nuclear Disarmament

Explore the complex dynamics of nuclear disarmament and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in this 47-minute conference talk by Dr. Heather Williams. Examine the challenges facing nuclear abolition efforts in an era of great power competition and deteriorating security environments, while analyzing how the nuclear ban treaty impacts extended nuclear deterrence and the nuclear order for the United States and its allies. Delve into an original examination of the theories, politics, and debates surrounding the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons conferences and TPNW negotiations, with a unique focus on the perspective of nuclear possessor states, particularly the United States, based on in-depth interviews with U.S. policymakers. Challenge conventional wisdom about the role of nuclear possessor states in the lead-up to the TPNW and discover how this perspective highlights both challenges for future disarmament efforts and the critical importance of involving key states in disarmament initiatives. Analyze competing theories of change for nuclear disarmament, comparing the TPNW's approach of delegitimizing nuclear weapons with the step-by-step approach promoted by the United States and other nations. Consider five potential futures for the TPNW and explore an alternative theory of change towards nuclear disarmament, including identification of new and potentially dangerous pathways to nuclear disarmament based on emerging technologies.