Bayesian Statistics: Excel to Python A/B Testing

Overview

By the end of this course, learners will be able to apply Bayesian statistics for decision-making in both business and healthcare contexts, implement probabilistic models in Excel, and perform advanced A/B and multi-variant testing using Python. The course begins with a hands-on introduction to Bayesian reasoning in Excel, where you will learn to structure datasets, calculate joint and conditional probabilities, and update prior probabilities with real-world healthcare examples. You will practice building Bayesian probability tables, interpreting repeated test outcomes, and analyzing predictive performance for evidence-based decision-making. Next, the course transitions into computational Bayesian statistics with Python. You will gain practical experience with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, approximate posterior distributions using PyMC, and explore hierarchical models for A/B and multi-variant testing. What sets this course apart is its dual approach: simple Excel-based foundations for immediate application, followed by advanced Python implementations for scalable experimentation and machine learning integration.

Syllabus

Foundations of Bayesian Machine Learning

This module introduces the core principles of Bayesian statistics and demonstrates their application in supervised machine learning and A/B testing. Learners will explore the fundamentals of Bayesian inference, examine practical examples of decision-making under uncertainty, and gain hands-on experience implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using PyMC. By the end of the module, participants will develop the ability to connect Bayesian theory with real-world machine learning experiments.

Data Exploration and Preparation

This module introduces learners to the fundamentals of preparing healthcare datasets for Bayesian statistical modeling using Microsoft Excel. Learners will explore project goals, understand the structure of real-world healthcare testing data, and create efficient summaries for initial analysis. By examining historical, future, demographic, and center-based trends, students will gain the ability to organize, interpret, and structure data effectively, ensuring a strong foundation for Bayesian probability applications in healthcare analytics.

Bayesian Modeling and Application

This module guides learners through constructing and applying Bayesian probability tables in Microsoft Excel to analyze healthcare testing scenarios. Students will learn how to structure Bayesian frameworks, calculate joint probabilities, update prior probabilities with new evidence, and interpret outcomes across multiple testing cycles. By the end of this module, learners will be able to apply Bayesian reasoning to real-world healthcare data, enhancing accuracy in predictive healthcare analytics.