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In this 54-minute lecture from The Royal Institution, renowned statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter explores the complex nature of uncertainty, probability, and chance in our lives. Discover how to better understand and deal with risk, uncertainty, luck, and the limitations of statistical modeling. Learn how uncertainty represents a relationship between observers and the outside world, and how we can express this numerically to update our beliefs about the future. Drawing from diverse examples that inform areas like annuities, pandemics, and climate change, explore when statistical confidence is warranted and when humility about our ignorance is necessary. Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, knighted in 2014 for his contributions to medical statistics and former President of the Royal Statistical Society, shares insights from his career analyzing data to assess future possibilities. This talk was recorded at the Ri on January 30, 2025, as part of the Discover 200 celebrations.
