Predicting Events Using Large Language Models - A Practical Guide to AI Forecasting

Learn how to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) for event prediction and forecasting in this 25-minute tutorial video. Explore practical demonstrations using a Colab notebook, understand the Metaculus Bot Competition framework, and discover key insights from Berkeley's forecasting research paper. Master advanced forecasting techniques while gaining awareness of important caveats for practical decision-making, including the relationship between probabilities and payoffs. Follow along with hands-on examples, access comprehensive resources including slides and research papers, and join a supportive community through Discord to enhance your forecasting capabilities with LLMs.

Syllabus

Using LLMs for Forecasting
Video Overview
Metaculus Bot Competition.
Demo: How to forecast with an LLM.
Lessons from the Berkeley Forecasting Paper.
Advanced techniques.
Caveats for Practical Decision-making: Probs vs Payoffs.
Notebook Demo: Metaculus Bot Competition.
Outro / Resources