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Building a Kalshi NFL Prediction Market Bot in Python - Performance Analysis and Challenges

Part Time Larry via YouTube

Overview

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Learn to build an automated NFL prediction market trading bot using Python by examining the complete architecture and implementation of a real-world system that trades on Kalshi during live games. Explore the technical challenges of parsing ESPN's unofficial API for real-time play-by-play data and win probability calculations, while understanding how to structure a bot that monitors NFL games and executes trades based on probability spikes. Discover the integration of websocket clients for real-time odds tracking, environment variable management, and the critical importance of data latency in algorithmic trading. Analyze the economic viability of such systems by examining actual trading scenarios during an NFL playoff game between the Seahawks and 49ers, including how small probability changes, execution speed limitations, and trading fees impact profitability. Understand the data latency hierarchy from official APIs to television broadcasts and evaluate whether prediction market bots can be profitable given current technological constraints and market conditions.

Syllabus

Quick preview of ESPN API vs. TV Stream
Parsing play-by-play JSON and win probability spikes
Seahawks vs. 49ers Gamecast
Who is first?
Code / file structure
ESPN Unofficial Public API
Bot Architecture
Code…does anyone care?
Find NFL Game Tickers Script
Environment variables
ESPN Client / Poller
Kalshi Websocket Client / Real-Time Odds
Spike in odds, long pause before it is reflected on TV stream
Small spike + not fast enough + fees = no profit
Data Latency Hierarchy
Is this useless?
Economics category? Trading different asset classes?
Should I do Kalshi coding tutorials?

Taught by

Part Time Larry

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