How Can Maths Help Us Make Better Predictions? – With Kit Yates

Explore the fascinating world of mathematical predictions in this engaging lecture by Kit Yates. Delve into the concepts of linearity, non-linearity, and randomness to understand how they impact decision-making. Discover the pitfalls of linear thinking, the power of positive feedback loops, and the nature of exponential growth. Examine human tendencies to seek patterns and the challenges of true randomness. Learn practical applications, from choosing lottery numbers to improving reasoning skills in everyday life. Gain valuable insights into how mathematics can help navigate uncertainties and make better predictions in various aspects of life and society.

Syllabus

Intro and famously bad predictions from school reports
What is linearity?
How can linear thinking trip us up?
What is non-linearity?
How do positive feedback loops work?
What is exponential growth?
What does true randomness look like?
Why do humans look for patterns?
Why the iPod Shuffle algorithm wasn’t actually random
Why are humans bad at being truly random?
How to use randomness to choose lottery numbers
How to change your mind
Using maths to reason better in life