Basic Excel Business Analytics - Basic Forecasting Methods & Measures of Forecast Error

This course introduces basic forecasting methods in Excel, including naïve, average, moving average, and exponential smoothing. It explains forecast error measures and uses Solver to optimize the smoothing factor by minimizing mean square error.

Syllabus

) Naïve Method or Most Recent Method for Forecasting.
) Forecast Error and Mean Forecast Error MFE.
) Mean Absolute Forecast Error MAE. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) Mean Square Error for Forecasting MSE for Forecasting. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) What does Forecast Error or Accuracy measures mean?.
) Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Measure of Forecast Accuracy/Error..
) SUMPRODUCT Array Formula for calculating Mean Square Error for Forecasting.
) Average Past Values for Forecasting.
) Moving Average Method for Forecasting.
) Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting using Smoothing Factor Alpha..
) Change Alpha to find smallest MSE.
) Use Solver to find smallest MSE..