Class Central is learner-supported. When you buy through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission.

Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting

via Train in Data

Overview

Create lag, window and seasonal features, perform imputation and encoding, extract datetime variables, remove outliers, and more.

Extract features from time series to forecast with regression models.

If you're disappointed for whatever reason, you'll get a full refund.

Kishan is a machine learning and data science lead, course instructor, and open source software contributor. He has contributed to well known Python packages including Statsmodels, Feature-engine, and Prophet. He presents at data science conferences including ODSC and PyData. Kishan attained a PhD in Physics from Imperial College London in applied large scale time-series analysis and modelling of cardiac arrhythmias; during this time he taught and supervised undergraduates and master's students.

Sole is a lead data scientist, instructor and developer of open source software. She created and maintains the Python library Feature-engine, which allows us to impute data, encode categorical variables, transform, create and select features. Sole is also the author of the "Python Feature engineering Cookbook" by Packt editorial.

Welcome to the most comprehensive course on Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting available online. In this course, you will learn how to create and extract features from time series data for use in forecasting.

Master the Art of Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting

In this course, you will learn multiple feature engineering methods to create features from time series data that are suitable for forecasting with off-the-shelf regression models like linear regression, tree-based models, and even neural networks.

The Challenges of Feature Engineering in Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions about the future based on past data. In the most traditional scenario, we have a time series and want to predict its future values. There are some challenges in creating forecasting features:

We can forecast future values of the time series using off-the-shelf regression models like linear regression, tree-based models, support vector machines, and more. However, these models require tabular data as input. For forecasting we don’t start with a table of features and a target variable, but instead a set of time series, perhaps just one. We need to transform the time series into tabular data with a target variable and a set of features that can be used by supervised learning models. Therefore, the main challenge is about creating a well-designed target variable and specially designed features that allow us to predict the future value of a time series.

Syllabus

  •   Welcome
    • Introduction
    • Course curriculum
    • Course overview
    • Course requirements
    • Course material
    • Download Jupyter notebooks
    • Download presentations
    • Download datasets
    • Refer a friend program
    • How did you hear about us?
  •   Tabularizing time series data
    • Time series overview
    • Forecasting overview
    • Datasets, features and targets
    • Forecasting framework
    • Feature engineering overview
    • Quiz: tabularizing time series data
    • Forecasting demo: data analysis
    • Forecasting demo: feature engineering
    • Forecasting demo: training the forecaster
    • Code assignment - tabularize time series
    • Summary
    • A word from your instructor
  •   Challenges in feature engineering for forecasting
    • Challenges in feature engineering
    • Machine learning workflow
    • Feature engineering in tabular data
    • Feature engineering in forecasting - considerations
    • Feature engineering in forecasting - pipelines
    • Quiz: machine learning workflow
    • Forecasting demo - intro
    • Feature engineering pipeline - demo
    • Forecasting one step ahead: demo
    • Code assignment - feature engineering pipeline
    • Multistep forecasting
    • Direct forecasting
    • Direct forecasting: demo
    • Recursive forecasting
    • Recursive forecasting: demo
    • Recursive forecasting: multiple horizons - demo
    • Summary
    • A word from your instructor
    • Extra Treat: Our Reading Suggestion đź“•
  •   Time Series Decomposition
    • Components of a time series
    • White noise
    • Additive and multiplicative models
    • Log transform
    • Box-Cox transform
    • Box-Cox transform: Guerrero method
    • Box-Cox transform: demo (part 1)
    • Box-Cox transform: demo (part 2)
    • Moving average
    • Moving averages in Pandas: demo
    • Classical decomposition: trend
    • Classical decomposition: seasonality
    • Classical decomposition: demo
    • LOWESS: Theory
    • LOWESS: Practice
    • LOWESS to extract trend: demo
    • LOWESS vs LOESS
    • STL Overview
    • STL theory part 1: LOESS and cycle-subseries
    • STL theory part 2: the inner loop
    • STL theory part 3: the outer loop
    • STL to compute seasonality and trend: demo
    • Multi-seasonal time series
    • Multi-seasonal decomposition
    • MSTL
    • MSTL: demo
    • Summary
    • Added Treat: A Movie We Recommend 🍿
  •   Missing Data Imputation
    • Imputation overview
    • Forward and backward filling
    • Forward and backward filling: demo
    • Linear interpolation
    • Linear interpolation: demo
    • Spline interpolation
    • Spline interpolation: demo
    • Seasonal decomposition and interpolation
    • Seasonal decomposition and interpolation: demo
    • Summary
  •   Outliers
    • Outliers overview
    • Outliers in time series
    • Rolling statistics
    • Rolling mean for outlier detection
    • Rolling mean for outlier detection: demo
    • Rolling median for outlier detection
    • Rolling median for outlier detection: demo
    • Residuals for outlier detection
    • LOWESS for outlier detection
    • LOWESS and residuals for outlier detection: demo
    • STL for outlier detection
    • STL and residuals for outlier detection: demo
    • Dummy variables to handle outliers and special events
    • Summary
    • More Wisdom: Our Chosen Podcast Episode 🎧
  •   Lag Features
    • Lag features
    • Lag features: demo
    • How to choose the lags
    • Autoregressive (AR) processes
    • Lag plots
    • Lag plots: demo
    • Autocorrelation function (part 1)
    • Autocorrelation function (part 2)
    • Autocorrelation function: demo
    • Partial autocorrelation function (part 1)
    • Partial autocorrelation function (part 2)
    • Partial autocorrelation function: demo
    • Cross correlation function (part 1)
    • Cross correlation function (part 2)
    • Cross correlation function: demo
    • Distributed lag features
    • Creating good lag features demo: air pollution dataset
    • Creating good lag features demo: domain knowledge
    • Creating good lag features demo: feature selection & modelling
    • Creating good lag features demo: correlation methods (part 1)
    • Creating good lag features demo: correlation methods (part 2)
    • Summary
  •   Window Features
    • Window features overview
    • Rolling window features: definition
    • Rolling window features: picking the window size and statistics
    • Rolling window features: implementation in Python
    • Rolling window features: demo
    • Expanding window features: definition
    • Expanding window features: use cases
    • Expanding window features: implementation in Python
    • Expanding window features: demo
    • Weighted window functions: definition & use cases
    • Weighted window functions: implementation in Python
    • Weighted window functions: demo
    • Exponential weights: definition
    • Exponential weights: expanding windows and implementation
    • Exponential weights: demo
    • Selecting window features: demo
    • Summary
  •   Trend Features
    • Trend features: overview
    • Types of trend
    • Linear trend: using time as a feature
    • Time feature: creating the feature demo
    • Time feature: forecasting demo
    • Non-linear trend: using time as a feature
    • Non-linear time features: creating the features demo
    • Non-linear time features: forecasting demo
    • Recursive forecasting with lags, windows, and trend
    • Trend features and recursive forecasting: demo
    • Piecewise regression and changepoints (part 1)
    • Piecewise regression and changepoints (part 2)
    • Changepoint features: creating the features demo
    • Changepoint features: forecasting demo
    • Tree-based models and trend
    • Tree-based models and trend: detrending with sktime demo
    • Tree-based models and trend: forecasting demo
    • Linear trees using LightGBM
    • Linear trees using LightGBM: demo
    • Summary
  •   Seasonality Features
    • Seasonality and cyclical patterns overview
    • Seasonal lag features
    • Seasonal lag features: demo
    • Date and time features for seasonality
    • Date and time features: demo (part 1)
    • Date and time features: demo (part 2)
    • Why linear models struggle with date and time features
    • Seasonal dummy features
    • Seasonal dummy features: demo (part 1)
    • Seasonal dummy features: demo (part 2)
    • Fourier features: theory
    • Fourier features: how to create and use Fourier features
    • Fourier features: demo (part 1)
    • Fourier features: demo (part 2)
    • Summary
  •   Date and Time Features
    • Date and time features
    • Date features: demo
    • Time features: demo
    • Datetime features with Feature-engine
    • Periodic or Cyclical Features
    • Periodic Features: demo
    • Calendar holidays
    • Calendar holidays: demo
    • Summary
  •   Categorical Features
    • Categorical features - intro
    • One hot encoding
    • One hot encoding with open source
    • One hot encoding: demo
    • Ordinal encoding
    • Ordinal encoding with open source
    • Ordinal encoding: demo
    • Mean encoding
    • Mean encoding: demo with Feature-engine
    • Mean encoding: demo with expanding windows
    • Summary
  •   Final section | Next steps
    • Congratulations
    • Next steps

Taught by

Kishan Manani

Reviews

Start your review of Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting

Never Stop Learning.

Get personalized course recommendations, track subjects and courses with reminders, and more.

Someone learning on their laptop while sitting on the floor.