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CodeSignal

Recognize Patterns That Aren’t There

via CodeSignal

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Overview

You will learn why random events often create streaks, clusters, and coincidences that look meaningful even when they are not. You'll explore the gambler's fallacy, hot-hand thinking, regression to the mean, and other common mistakes people make when interpreting patterns in chance events.

Syllabus

  • Unit 1: Understand How Random Events Behave
    • What Outcome Is Being Described?
    • Match Probability To Likelihood
    • Does the First Outcome Change the Next?
    • What Happens Right After a Streak?
    • Analyze The Streak Reasoning
  • Unit 2: Challenge the Due Outcome Myth
    • Short Runs Versus Long Runs
    • Will It Balance Out Next?
    • Identify the Gambler's Fallacy
    • Respond to a "Due" Claim
  • Unit 3: Interpret Winning and Losing Streaks
    • Is It Skill or Just a Streak?
    • Spot the "Hot Hand" Mistake
    • Extreme Performances and the Next Performance
    • Why Did Performance Move Back Toward Average?
    • Evaluate a Streak-Based Claim
  • Unit 4: Recognize False Patterns and Coincidences
    • Observe Random Streaks
    • Coincidence or Evidence?
    • Examine a Cluster
    • Search for Chance Patterns
    • The Disease Cluster
  • Unit 5: Question Evidence from Small Samples
    • Watch Small Samples Swing
    • How Many Observations Is That?
    • Compare Small Sample Evidence
    • Investigate a Noisy Trend
    • Challenge a Claim Based on Limited Evidence

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