You will learn to reason from background frequencies instead of trusting a single test result or alert. Using natural frequencies, you'll interpret test accuracy and combine base rates with error rates to judge what a positive result really means in medical, fraud, and security settings.
Overview
Syllabus
- Unit 1: Find the Base Rate
- Pinpoint the Base Rate
- Read the Background Frequency
- Complete Natural Frequency Statements
- Count the Overlap
- Reason Through Rare Event Alerts
- Unit 2: Interpret Test Results Correctly
- Label the Four Results
- False Positive or False Negative?
- Match Each Rate to Its Definition
- Which Group Is This Rate About?
- Analyze The Rate Claim
- Unit 3: Judge What a Positive Result Means
- Separate Catch Rates from Correct Results
- Interpret Positive Results
- Build the Positive Result Group
- Estimate the Real Chance
- Explain A Positive Result
- Unit 4: Evaluate Rare Event Alerts
- Evaluate Alert Reliability
- Why So Many False Alarms?
- Find Genuine Alert Percent
- Accurate System, Noisy Alerts