Learn how to transform the challenging task of software development estimation into a more effective probability-based approach in this conference talk from LeadDev Berlin 2024. Discover a mental model shift that moves away from traditional cost and effort estimates toward probability mapping for delivery timelines. Explore how this method can reduce friction in the estimation process while building trust between engineering teams and stakeholders. Master techniques for handling the dreaded "When will this be ready?" question by understanding the uncertainties inherent in complex problem-solving and creating more realistic delivery predictions. Gain practical insights into making estimation conversations more productive and meaningful for both technical teams and business stakeholders.